Is polling irrelevant?

Based on this article it is, and Obama is much more solid than polls would argue. The formula it mentions is dubious but a 14/15 accuracy is hard to argue with.

This time however, both of the candidates have an image of being a different breed of politician, though neither can truly claim to be that. McCain's maverick image still sticks from his failed 2000 bid, and his considerable Senate record does show many instances where he strays from party line, often to the wrath of Republican leaders. His strong stance against corruption and meaningless spending still separates him from the Republican establishment that the country has grown weary of. A McCain presidency would certainly ease the partisanship that has taken root in America.

Then again, on the most important issues-the economy, Iraq, dealing with hostile nations-McCain is simply an extension of Bush. He has admitted many times that he has little experience or knowledge of domestic affairs at a time when the state of our union has been weakened at home as well as abroad. I would hope that McCain would have the sense to surround himself with knowledgeable and competent advisors, but he is not known for having an open mind, and most likely would draw from the same group that made up the Bush administration. Phil Gramm may be banished to Belarus, but let it not be forgotten that McCain himself diagnosed the country with a mental recession.

Obama is in danger of losing the force that drove a young, African-American, freshman Senator from Illinois to become the Democratic presidential candidate. His recent rush to the center, although it doesn't bother me personally, has alienated many of his supporters on the left and caused many others to mistrust his intentions. He is only doing what any politician would do, only he does it in the midst of a campaign that is supposed to be about change.

Another problem is, yes, Obama's race. Of course race shouldn't be a factor at all, yet history begs to differ. Your average conscientious white person will tell you that "no, of course race will play no part in my decision". However, there are many historical examples (of which I am too lazy to dig up right now) that show black candidates leading in the polls prior to an election getting trounced on election day. In the voting booth, it's you and your biases, with no one around to confront you about them. No mainstream journalist dare mention race in this campaign, but it is a wild card that will always be lingering in the back of voters' minds.